COVID-19: A closer look

Hi there! Curious about the math behind infection spread? I've posted a quick intro below.

Counts of new cases and deaths each day

C stands for the daily new Cases (red), and D for the daily Deaths (black). The dots are the data, the (not always visible) red line is the smoothed data (Gaussian kernel, \(\sigma\)=2-4 days, applied to the log of the daily case count). The blue line is a set of linear segments identified via the method described by V. Muggeo, each corresponding to a period with a given rate of increase/decrease of daily counts, separated by vertical red dashed lines, likely corresponding to the start/end of certain public health measures. The black and blue lines for the daily death counts are the red and blue lines for the daily case counts shifted by eye by a # of days and multiplied by a percentage, indicated in the graph title. These #s suggest Japan (12 days between Case identified to Death, 5% of Cases result in Death) is possibly doing better than France (7 days Case to Death, 18% of Cases result in Death), because France seemingly takes 5 days more to report infected individuals as cases, and identifies 3-4 times fewer infected individuals as cases, assuming a similar likelihood of death from infection, which might not be correct.

Local scale